Analysis: Foldable market on the up as Apple waits in wings

A trio of analyst houses backed the foldable smartphone segment for significant increases moving forward driven by wider styles and the expected entry of Apple, though the form factor still looks destined to remain a niche corner of the market. Omdia figures predicted shipments of foldable smartphones would increase 22% in 2026 to more than 22 million units. The growth rate is a marked improvement from the 6% increase booked in 2025, which was the lowest in recent years, but was also in the context of a pretty dour period for the smartphone market in general. Omdia principal analyst Zaker Li said “in a year defined by supply chain constraints and market uncertainty, foldable smartphones stand out as the industry’s most compelling growth story”. Its forecast for the year broadly aligns with Counterpoint Research’s assessment released in July predicting a 21% increase in 2026, while the latest figures from IDC place the rate at over 12.5% at almost 23 million units. IDC senior director Nabila Popal told Mobile World Live the market was “one of the few segments in which brands can grow and add value” given general conditions, though acknowledged the form factor is “still a niche segment” with “fast growth, small base”. Foldables represent a tiny share of the overall number of smartphones sold. IDC’s projections for this year would give the category a share of around 2.2%. In a forecast to 2030 Omdia predicted continued growth, with the number of devices shipped annually tipped to hit 45 million by then. Even with projected increases, the category would likely still account for less than 3% of the overall market. It stated the format would remain a “premium niche” despite the long-term growth. Widescreen experience A demand driver pointed to by Counterpoint and Omdia is the release of devices with wider displays able to provide a more tablet-like experience, while the former and IDC also pointed to an anticipated entry of Apple. Omdia tipped the “emerging wide-format book-type foldable design” to support future growth, while the clamshell-style continues to weaken after booking a 47% dip in shipments year-on-year in H1 2026. “Huawei pioneered this new wide-format design with the Pura X Max ( pictured ) in May 2026, followed by Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8 ,” Zaker said. “With other leading vendors set to launch similar products in the coming months, this new category is driving a fresh wave of growth in the foldable smartphone market.” Analysis from Counterpoint and IDC pinned some hopes on the expectation Apple would enter the market at some point in 2026, though whether this will actually happen remains to be seen . Counterpoint’s touted 21% increase includes Apple grabbing a 25% share of the market by the end of the year. The analyst company’s associate director Liz Lee said this year would “mark a new phase for the foldable smartphone market”. “Apple’s entry is expected to lift overall consumer awareness and raise the benchmark for premium foldables,” she added, noting despite this Samsung still had a clear advantage in “product maturity, channel reach and foldable user experience”. IDC was also bullish on the Apple impact. Popal said the iPhone maker was “expected to enter the foldable market this year with a passport-style device which IDC forecasts will start at $2,500. It’s the biggest catalyst the category has seen”. The analyst added cost, durability concerns and a “lack of a killer use case have kept the category niche rather than mainstream”, but added the situation was “about to be tested” by Apple’s entry. “The real question isn’t whether Apple can sell foldables, it’s whether Apple can redefine what a foldable can do. If it lands a genuinely new use case and frames the user experience well, something Apple is well known for doing. Either way, Apple’s entry will generate renewed interest in the category. At the end of the day, increased competition means more innovation, and that’s good for everyone,” she added. Barriers Cost, as referenced by the IDC expert, is an issue often cited by industry commentators as hampering foldables hitting the mass market. “Price remains the biggest barrier to broader adoption. Foldable average selling prices run more than three times the average smartphone price,” Popal said. Foldable average selling prices run more than three times the average smartphone price Nabila Popal, senior director IDC Foldables currently on the market almost all fall into the premium segment, with many towards the top end. Current listings on UK mobile operator websites show the sole foldable priced below £1,000 is the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip7 FE at around £850. Omdia noted the segment faced “structural cost barriers, with complex components including large displays, hinges, and specialised glass keeping bill of materials costs high”. It added in light of this vendors were prioritising premium devices rather than chasing shipment volume. Omdia added to drive beyond early adopters brands “will need to develop differentiated, value-added services that take advantage of the foldable form factor, while exploring strategic partnerships that can reduce ownership costs and demonstrate clearer use-case benefits over conventional smartphones”. Market dynamics Now described by the company as a “ bold experiment ”, the first foldable to hit the market was Samsung’s Galaxy Fold in September 2019, quickly followed by Huawei with its Mate X. Subsequently a slew of big names have entered the fray with various iterations including multi-folding devices , though Counterpoint noted the market was still dominated by Samsung with a 40% share in 2025 followed by Huawei on 30%. Motorola on 12% was the only other vendor to make double figures in share. However, if press rumours and analyst forecasts are to be believed the emergence of Apple could change all that with Counterpoint and IDC anticipating the iPhone-maker can take a sizeable chunk in short time. The post Analysis: Foldable market on the up as Apple waits in wings appeared first on Mobile World Live .